Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2803 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2803 · MIA → MCO

departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 8:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,583 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2803 · MIA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?