Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2808 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2808 · FLL → LGA

departs 5:49 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±7 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.23 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2808 · FLL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?