Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2819 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2819 · ORD → PHL

departs 3:29 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.05 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2819 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?