Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2819 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2819 · ORD → PHL

departs 3:26 PM CT · arrives 6:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2819 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?