Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2831 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2831 · MIA → TPA

departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.34 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2831 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?