Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2837 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2837 · TPA → DCA

departs 1:32 PM ET · arrives 3:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.26 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2837 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?