Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 2838 · PHL → TPA
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to TPA?
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On time or early
70%
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15–30 min late
7%
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30 min–1 hour late
11%
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1–2 hours late
4%
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Over 2 hours late
5%
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Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.