Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2838 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2838 · PHL → TPA

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2838 · PHL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?