Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2838 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2838 · TPA → PHL

departs 4:29 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.26 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2838 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?