Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2838 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2838 · TPA → PHL

departs 4:29 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.32 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2838 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?