Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2838SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tomorrow
AA 2838 · TPA → PHL
departs 4:29 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
27%chance · ±1 pts−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.