Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2853 · CLT → TUL

departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 12:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2853 · CLT → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?