Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2875 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2875 · PHL → MCI

departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

MCI (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility4.42857 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2875 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?