Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2875 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2875 · PHL → MCI

departs 2:27 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MCI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2875 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?