Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2900 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2900 · TPA → PHL

departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TPA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.43 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2900 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?