Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2900 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2900 · TPA → PHL

departs 5:56 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2900 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?