Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 2930 · PHX → LAX

departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 6:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±5 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at LAX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2930 · PHX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?