Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2930 · PHX → LAX

departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 6:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2930 · PHX → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?