Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2936 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2936 · PHL → MIA

departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 12:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

MIA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2936 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?