Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 3004 · DFW → BWI

departs 3:17 PM CT · arrives 7:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

BWI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3004 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?