Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3004 · DFW → BWI

departs 3:17 PM CT · arrives 7:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±9 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.77 in

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3004 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?