Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3026 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 3026 · JFK → AUS

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 10:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3026 · JFK → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?