Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3101 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 3101 · DFW → DCA

departs 2:56 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±6 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip2.13 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3101 · DFW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?