Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3125 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 3125 · PHL → RDU

departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

RDU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3125 · PHL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?