Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3125 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 3125 · PHL → RDU

departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

RDU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3125 · PHL → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?