Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3148 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 3148 · ORD → MIA

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 6:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3148 · ORD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?