Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 431 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:19 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±9 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 431 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?