Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 431 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:19 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.87 in

SAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip1.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 431 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?