Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 431 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 431 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:08 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 431 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?