Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 494 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 494 · CLT → RDU

departs 10:57 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 494 · CLT → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?