Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 496 · PHX → MIA

departs 4:24 PM MT · arrives 11:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 496 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?