Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 499 · SAT → DFW

departs 8:23 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
13%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.48 in

DFW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 499 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?