Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 499 · SAT → DFW

departs 8:23 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 499 · SAT → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?