Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 510 · LAX → LIH

departs 5:50 PM PT · arrives 8:48 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at LAX that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 510 · LAX → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?