Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 510 · LAX → LIH

departs 5:50 PM PT · arrives 8:48 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 510 · LAX → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?