Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 542 · DFW → RDU

departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±9 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.45 in

RDU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 542 · DFW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?