Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 578 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 578 · DFW → JFK

departs 4:13 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.48 in

JFK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 578 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?