tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 578 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 578 · DFW → JFK

departs 4:13 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 4.8d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to JFK?

  1. On time or early
    69%
  2. 15–30 min late
    2%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    18%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    5%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.