Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 586 LANDED 10:27 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

AA 586 · IND → CLT

took off 9:26 PM ET · landed 10:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IND that day

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.45 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 586 · IND → CLT

Odds over time