Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 689 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 689 · ORD → CLT

departs 6:47 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 689 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?