Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 851 · CLT → BGR

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BGR

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 851 · CLT → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?