Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

departs 8:36 PM CT · arrives 10:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.56 in

MSN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?