Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

departs 8:36 PM CT · arrives 10:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.44 in

MSN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?