Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

departs 8:36 PM CT · arrives 10:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.07 in

MSN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?