AA 974 · DCA → BDL

took off 10:39 PM ET · landed 11:26 PM ET (scheduled 10:32 PM ET → 11:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BDL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DCA that day

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at BDL that day

↓ BDL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

BDL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 974 · DCA → BDL

Odds over time

How late did it get to BDL?