Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 991 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 991 · DFW → PHL

departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.69 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 991 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?