Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 991 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 991 · DFW → PHL

departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 991 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?