Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1029 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AS 1029 · KOA → LIH

departs 8:00 AM HT · arrives 8:55 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ 8am departures from KOA are usually not late

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.62 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1029 · KOA → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?