Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AS 1144 · LIH → HNL

departs 6:16 PM HT · arrives 6:53 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

↓ 6pm departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

HNL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1144 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?