Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1144 · LIH → HNL

departs 6:16 PM HT · arrives 6:53 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 6pm departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,533 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1144 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?